{"id":1411,"date":"2020-09-17T09:46:16","date_gmt":"2020-09-17T09:46:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nixq4qvp95-staging.onrocket.site\/?p=1411"},"modified":"2022-08-10T13:51:00","modified_gmt":"2022-08-10T13:51:00","slug":"which-states-are-leading-the-recovery-in-the-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/which-states-are-leading-the-recovery-in-the-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Which states are leading the recovery in the US?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our latest job vacancy numbers for the USA show that we\u2019re within striking distance of the pre-pandemic levels. Having fallen from over 4 million to just 2.1 million vacancies at the end of April, here in September the overall number has recovered back to 3.6 million. The unemployment rate (which lags behind our real-time numbers) says that unemployment ballooned up from 4% to over 14%, and has since fallen to 8.4%. It would be misleading to say that we\u2019re back to \u201cnormal\u201d but we\u2019re a lot closer than we were.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We last looked at states at the tail end of July, but we thought it is appropriate to revisit as it\u2019s a matter of weeks until the Presidential election. The number of people in work is likely to have an effect on votes. If you are out of a job because of the pandemic and the government\u2019s handling of it, you may &#8211; rightly or wrongly &#8211; feel more negative to the incumbent government than you had before.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We\u2019ve taken a look at battleground states and how they\u2019ve recovered to see if this gives any indication of what\u2019s happening.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The national picture<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of the 16 countries Adzuna operates in, the USA is somewhere in the middle in terms of recovery. We\u2019ve compared it here to some comparable large countries, and it sits right in the middle here. As the nearest neighboring country, Canada\u2019s job numbers are above where they were over the first 7 weeks of the year. The UK fell further and is recovering slower, Germany had a much shallower dip, and is just below normal levels, while Brazil is continuing to fall.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile the US fell almost as far and fast as the UK, but has recovered its job vacancies much quicker. Although it\u2019s fallen away over the past few weeks, the pattern has broadly been a large growth in numbers one week followed by a corrective week the next.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/3752260\" data-url=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/3752260\/embed\" aria-label=\"\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div data-src=\"visualisation\/3752260\" data-url=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/3752260\/embed\" aria-label=\"\"><\/div>\n<p><b>State by state &#8211; compared to the start of the year<\/b><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-map\" data-src=\"visualisation\/3752339\" data-url=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/3752339\/embed\" aria-label=\"\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p>Unsurprisingly, most states are still down compared to the start of the year, and those that are close to the \u201cnormal\u201d mark are within a few percent. What\u2019s more striking is the bold greens in Michigan and Oklahoma. Michigan is a slight outlier as it had a relatively low job count at the start of the year, so its current appearance is thrown into sharp relief.<\/p>\n<p>At the other end of the scale is Nevada. With many non-casino industries shut down there it\u2019s not a huge surprise that hiring is still down from normal levels.<\/p>\n<p><b>State by state &#8211; since May<\/b><\/p>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-map\" data-src=\"visualisation\/3754372\" data-url=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/3754372\/embed\" aria-label=\"\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div data-src=\"visualisation\/3754372\" data-url=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/3754372\/embed\" aria-label=\"\">\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is the recovery map from the country\u2019s lowest point at the end of April. As before we can see that Michigan and Oklahoma are near the top of the table in terms of generating new jobs for the nation. But the West Coast states in Washington, Oregon, California and Nevada are starting to recover too.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The North East and South East states are struggling a little to grow at quite the same rate as the rest of the country. But the Midwest states continue to recover nicely.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But this is just a snapshot of where we are now, and to get a real picture we have to look at how each state got here.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>State by state &#8211; throughout time\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Clearly, there\u2019s 50 different stories here so it\u2019s not worth going through every single one. However most states followed the national picture with just a little deviation. Some notable exceptions include Louisiana which climbed and fell very dramatically. New Hampshire and Massachusetts have been very volatile, changing direction rapidly. Oregon and Pennsylvania have seen recent rapid increases that have tailed off. And as discussed before Nevada has fallen and stayed down, contrary to the national picture.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/3705074\" data-url=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/3705074\/embed\" aria-label=\"\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<p><b>The battleground states<\/b><br \/>\nIt\u2019s impossible to predict the effect that the current pandemic and the impact on people\u2019s work will have on the votes. It would be logical if people felt frustration towards the government for being out of work, and possibly out of pocket. However, it\u2019s a truly unprecedented time, and the US is coming out of it reasonably well, so if there was a bad mood, that might have softened.<\/p>\n<p>What is clear though is that right now, if a lack of jobs coupled with a high unemployment rate is going to affect an incumbent government more, then Donald Trump should be worried. Having won Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016, which arguably tipped the election in his favor, he will be pleased to see the recovery going well there.<\/p>\n<p>He will be less pleased to see states like Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida struggling to catch up to the national average. Even states that seemed firmly red like Texas and Arizona are being talked about possibly flipping this election cycle. If this is a sign of the weak economy in these states it may convince a few undecideds to vote against Trump if they perceive him as responsible.<\/p>\n\n<table id=\"tablepress-15\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-15\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1\">\n\t<th class=\"column-1\">State<\/th><th class=\"column-2\">Vote in 2016<\/th><th class=\"column-3\"> <br \/>\nAverage weekly vacancies, September 2020<br \/>\n<\/th><th class=\"column-4\">Average weekly vacancies, pre-Covid19<\/th><th class=\"column-5\">Change since the first 7 weeks of 2020 (pre-Covid19<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody class=\"row-striping row-hover\">\n<tr class=\"row-2\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Michigan<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trump<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">141,419<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">120,658<br \/>\n<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">17.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Ohio<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trump<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">154,555<\/td><td class=\"column-4\"> 141,070<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">9.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-4\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\"> Pennsylvania<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trump<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">189,781<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">187,922<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">1.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-5\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">New Hampshire <\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Clinton<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">24,136<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">23,985<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">0.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-6\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">National average<\/td><td class=\"column-2\"><\/td><td class=\"column-3\">3,693,159<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">4,121,346<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-10.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-7\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Maine<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Clinton<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">16,744<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">19,826<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-15.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-8\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">North Carolina<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trump<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">109,091<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">129,452<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-15.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-9\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Minnesota<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Clinton<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">82,807<\/td><td class=\"column-4\"> 98,752<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-16.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-10\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Virginia<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Clinton<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">119,604<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">152,140<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-21.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-11\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Wisconsin<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trump<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">67,032<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">86,421<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-22.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-12\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Texas<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trump<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">189,201<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">252,581<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-25.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-13\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Iowa<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trump<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">36,288<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">48,937<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-25.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-14\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Georgia<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trump<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">96,261<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">130,581<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-26.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-15\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Arizona<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trump<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">64,265<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">88,848<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-27.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-16\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Florida<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Trump<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">143,362<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">207,035<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-30.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-17\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Colorado<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Clinton<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">73,308<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">107,045<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-31.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-18\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Nevada<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Clinton<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">21,695<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">35,049<\/td><td class=\"column-5\">-38.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n<p><b>Conclusions<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s great to see such a fast-paced recovery across the whole country, but there is still a long way to go to normal economic conditions. The total job number is an indicator of economic health, of the confidence that businesses have in the economy and in their own future, but it\u2019s not the whole picture. Unemployment is still high, and businesses and job seekers still have concerns about the overall safety in returning to work.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, if the states which are struggling to recover job numbers all flip from red to blue in November, then we might look at it as a good indicator for future political performance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our latest job vacancy numbers for the USA show that we\u2019re within striking distance of the pre-pandemic levels. Having fallen from over 4 million to just 2.1 million vacancies at the end of April, here in September the overall number has recovered back to 3.6 million. The unemployment rate (which lags behind our real-time numbers)<a class=\"moretag\" href=\"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/which-states-are-leading-the-recovery-in-the-us\/\"> Continued \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[140],"class_list":["post-1411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-job-market","tag-featured"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/32"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1411"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1411\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.adzuna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}